Mortgage rates have been relatively flat since the Fed cut the federal funds rate in early January, but that could change this week. The first full week of the year brings us a full plate of market-moving data, with a new batch of labor reports coming on Wednesday and Friday.

Earlier this morning, two voting Fed Presidents acknowledged that the labor market is weak, but not weak enough to justify another cut. This week’s data will offer us a fresh perspective; we get the ADP private employment report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Wednesday and the headline BLS jobs report on Friday. If anything can get rates to break below the tight range they’ve bounced between, it’s Friday’s jobs report, so that will be one to watch.